Roll Call: Gerlach Move Improves GOP Chances to Hold Swing Seat

Gerlach Move Improves GOP Chances to Hold Swing Seat

By Shira Toeplitz, CQ-Roll Call

Rep. Jim Gerlach’s (R-Pa.) decision to leave the gubernatorial race and instead run for re-election to his current House seat makes this race more competitive for Republicans.

Even though the National Republican Congressional Committee had already found a strong and wealthy candidate to run in his place, businessman Steve Welch, Gerlach’s incumbency improves his party’s chances of holding the swing seat.

CQ Politics is therefore changing the race rating from Tossup to Leans Republican. Pennsylvania’s 6th district is still a competitive seat, but Gerlach’s decision to stay put has makes it more difficult for Democrats -- who had the open seat race near the top of their list of pickup opportunities. Gerlach will also likely be boosted by a strong GOP gubernatorial candidate on the ticket this fall.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (Texas) emphatically supported Gerlach’s decision, and released a statement indicating his support minutes after his announcement.

"Jim Gerlach ’s decision to forgo his gubernatorial bid and stand for re-election in the House is one that I wholeheartedly support and welcome,” Sessions said.

However, this doesn’t mean that Gerlach won’t have a tough re-election battle - but at least he’s used to that since he has been targeted by Democrats ever since he first won the seat in 2002.

President Barack Obama won the district in 2008 with 58 percent of the vote, meanwhile Gerlach eked by with 52 percent against a little-known Democratic opponent. He won by even smaller margins – 51 percent – in the 2002, 2004 and 2006 cycles.

Democrats have also recruited a top-tier candidate, former editorial writer Doug Pike, who has deep pockets to run in the expensive suburban Philadelphia district. Pike has already put more $621,000 of his own money into the race. Two other Democratic candidates, physician Manan Trivedi and Lower Merion Township Commissioner Brian Gordon have also announced bids.

"The 6th district is one of our top pick up opportunities regardless of whether or not Jim Gerlach decides to run for re-election,” said DCCC spokesman Shripal Shah. "Democrats have a strong slate of candidates in the district who are committed to turning the page on the George Bush economic agenda that Republicans like Jim Gerlach have come to epitomize. The suspension of his gubernatorial campaign doesn’t change our focus moving forward.”

What’s more, it appears Republicans could face a messy primary: Welch is staying in the race for now. Although a March 18 primary won’t doom GOP chances of keeping the seat, it’s not that helpful for Gerlach, who much fundraise at a torrid clip this year to make up for lost time.

Gerlach reported having less than $35,000 in his campaign account at the end of September, and it’s unclear how much of the $1 million he raised in his gubernatorial campaign can be transferred back to his Congressional bid.