Release: New Poll Shows Gerlach Leading GOP Primary by 65 Points

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

New Poll Shows Gerlach Leading Welch in May Republican Primary by 65 Points

At this Point, a Divisive Primary Only Serves Nancy Pelosi and Democrats in Washington

(Glenmoore, PA) - A poll released by the Gerlach for Congress campaign today showed a dominating lead over primary opponent Steve Welch, with four term Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach leading in a head-to-head match up by a 71-6% margin. The poll was conducted February 9-11 of 300 likely Republican primary voters. Additionally, Gerlach boasts an 87-7% favorable-unfavorable rating, while the unknown Welch has a 7-5% rating.

"Republican voters in southeast Pennsylvania know Jim very well and they have already reached the conclusion that he is doing a good job in Congress and should be returned to Washington for another term," said Chris Wilson, the campaign’s pollster. "With solid numbers like these, Jim is a virtual lock to win the Republican primary. Any primary challenge to Jim Gerlach at this point would only serve Nancy Pelosi and Democrats in Washington."

Among the data, Wilson Research Strategies found that Gerlach's Republican support is strongest among the most conservative voters, making it nearly impossible to challenge him "from the right." Additionally, Republican primary voters who disapprove of Congress (87%) do not blame Jim Gerlach for the problems in Washington, since 86% of those voters approve of Gerlach’s job performance in Congress. Therefore, this is not an anti-incumbent electorate.

"Even among those voters who have heard of Steve Welch, Gerlach is leading 67-15%," added Wilson.

Since Jim Gerlach's decision to seek re-election January 8th, a number of national publications have written that Pennsylvania’s 6th District seat is now more likely to stay in Republican hands, with one commentator stating that Gerlach "saved that seat for Republicans... I think they would have lost it otherwise." Still, Democrats are ecstatic after learning of Welch's decision to challenge Gerlach in the primary. The National Journal said it forces Republicans into a "potentially costly, and damaging, primary" that could be "damaging to the GOP hopes of holding the seat." Pa2010.com wrote the news of his primary challenge was "a lift for Democrats."

Despite having to start virtually from scratch after winding down his federal campaign account last year in anticipation of a campaign for Governor, Gerlach announced at the end of January that he had secured more than half a million dollars in financial commitments in just three weeks for his primary election campaign, a number that has grown each day.

A copy of the polling memo released today can be found here.

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